Eight Predictions for '08What will be the big video game stories of 2008? Peer into our crystal ball and discover eight potential futures.By Ben Silverman
Red Rings of Death.
'Ban'hunt. Wii droughts. Last year was a crazy one for gamers, filled
with controversies, console wars and more amazing games than we could
reasonably afford to play. We've already pointed out some of the coming year's biggest releases,
but what else might gamers expect? What unforeseen events will define
video games in 08? With the help of some tarot cards, a few
unsubstantiated rumors and a time-traveling DeLorean, we summon our
inner Nostradamus and present eight possible outcomes for the year
ahead.
1. The PS3 will gain ground. Really. Stop laughing - we're being serious. After a pretty dismal year, Sony is
poised to snatch back a significant chunk of the market share it
unwittingly handed over to Microsoft and Nintendo. Why would we make
such an outlandish claim? Simple: compared to the 360 and the Wii, the
PS3 has the most room for growth and the tastiest morsels left on the
post-holiday plate.
The launch of Metal Gear Solid 4 and LittleBigPlanet will give PS3 users
two more mega-exclusives worth bragging about (until MGS eventually
makes it to the 360, Konami's denials be damned), and 2008 promises to
be the year Sony will finally release its much-ballyhooed and
oft-delayed Home network. Sure, Microsoft still has GTA IV, and
Nintendo will rule the roost early with Super Smash Bros. Brawl, but
the rest of the year is up for grabs. Since they're the most desperate,
Sony's hand will move the fastest.
2. Nintendo will get fit, start a fight, and vanish for six months. It's good to be the king, although that also means everyone's gunning for
your crown. And while we expect Nintendo to finally meet Wii hardware
demands in 08, we're not as convinced that they'll keep consumers
interested in their games for the full calendar year. The company
starts off 08 with the potent one-two punch of Wii Fit and Super Smash
Bros. Brawl, pretty much ensuring another winning quarter.
But what happens after that? Other than Mario Kart Wii, there's nothing
particularly exciting lined up to keep those elusive Wiis from
collecting dust. Beyond massive first-party gems like Super Mario
Galaxy and Metroid Prime, the current software lineup is pretty thin
and the upcoming Wii release list is comparatively weak. We're
expecting a slew of new first-party announcements come the E3
convention in July, but that might be just enough time for the
competition to catch up.
3. All three console manufacturers will release new versions of their rigs.Time was, you bought a video game system, enjoyed it for a few years, then bought a new one. Remember? Before you dropped hard-earned cash on a console only to find out that a newer, better and potentially cheaper
version would come out just a few months later? Microsoft introduced
two new 360 SKUs in 2007: Xbox 360 Arcade and Xbox 360 Halo 3 Special
Edition, to go along with the Pro and Elite models. Sony confused
everyone by releasing an 80 GB version, discontinuing the 60 GB
version, and releasing the reduced-price 40GB version all within three
months. Oh, and they made a slimmer PSP. You get the feeling Nintendo
would have pumped out four versions of the Wii had they actually been
able to meet initial hardware demand. So what's on tap for 2008? In an
effort to sway consumers further away from Sony's PS3 and its Blue-Ray
capabilities, look for Microsoft to announce a new high-end model
featuring a built-in HD-DVD drive. Sony will surely announce more
pricing schemes, and we wouldn't be shocked if Nintendo finally decided
to offer a Wii capable of outputting in HD. Actually, we'd be thrilled.
4. GTA IV will put Rockstar back on top.Last year was like one long, foggy hangover for Rockstar Games. Between the public outcry over Manhunt 2 and the unfortunate delay of GTA IV, the
once-vaunted game publisher was bludgeoned by bad news in 2007. But if
a game company is indeed judged by the success of their games, expect
2008 to rocket Rockstar back into the spotlight; Grand Theft Auto IV is
that big of a deal.
In fact, it's the biggest game ever in the series, a monumental
undertaking that combines the franchise's criminally fun gameplay with
an incredible graphics engine and unparalleled depth. Despite the
inevitable media backlash, Rockstar's upcoming best-seller should see
the company back on solid ground.
5. EA will buy or merge with (INSERT NAME OF SLIGHTLY SMALLER COMPANY)Valve? Epic? Hershey's, maybe? No company is safe with this leviathan lurking below the surface, waiting to gobble up studios curious enough to set foot in the waters of "partnership" negotiation. Last year saw the
mighty Bioware (Mass Effect, Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic)
and the only slightly less mighty Pandemic (Full Spectrum Warrior,
Mercenaries) wander into the gaping maw of the mega-publisher; past
acquisitions include Criterion (Burnout series), Digital Illusions
(Battlefield) and Mythic (Dark Age of Camelot).
So what's next on the menu? Hard to say, but we wouldn't be surprised if
they targeted an ailing publisher like Eidos or a successful smaller
player like Bethesda. Heck, this time next year you might be reading EA
Yahoo.
6. You will play (and enjoy) more casual games than ever before.That's not a threat so much as a fact. What used to be a bad word among the more hardcore gamers has become the natural evolution of an industry
whose users face ever-dwindling amounts of free time. According to a
2007 report by the Casual Games Association, over 200 million people
enjoyed online casual gaming every month of last year.
And unlike the predominantly male hardcore gaming crowd, the casual gaming scene is almost evenly split down gender lines. It's not just a PC
phenomenon, either, as the crossover success of the family-friendly Wii
has game publishers scrambling to offer more casual fare for the home
consoles. Some of the biggest titles to grace Xbox Live fall under the
'casual' label, including the first XBLA game to pass one million
downloads, Uno. Leading third-party publisher EA even created EA Casual
Games, a division so devoted to casual gaming it's being led by
industry heavyweight Kathy Vrabeck, formerly the president of
Activision. So don't feel weird when you discover the joys of Diner
Dash or the addictive pinging of Peggle - everybody else is doing it,
too.
7. Studies will indicate that violent video games encourage violent behavior, while other studies will indicate
that that's a load of rubbish.We've been playing violent video games since we lobbed our first salvo in Atari Combat and have yet to do anything more violent than trim our hangnails, but apparently this is still a hot-button issue. Back and forth they go, the scientists, with their fancy charts, white lab coats and odd testing practices, but we still have no definitive answer to the eternally debated question: "Are these games making us criminally insane, or what?"
Last year saw hordes of studies deliver conflicting results, and there's no
reason to think this abuse of the scientific method will hit the brakes
in '08. Despite what you heard about Manhunt 2's ailing sales figures,
plenty of violent games are already lined up to shed some virtual blood
throughout the year, and should anyone so much as jaywalk during their
launch windows, you can bet your memory cards that violent game studies
will be touted all over the place. Can't we all just get along?
8. Duke Nukem Forever will still not come out.Ten years and counting!